A few crime data
“Key Figures – Denmark: Among 35 year old men in 2004: 28% convicted at least once (non-trafic), 14% convicted at least twice (non-trafic), 12% prison sentence (suspended or not).”
From a course lecture note. I’ve written about the crime rates of immigrants in Denmark before (Danish link). The number you need to know from that article is this one: In 2007, 27,2% of (n=1449) male descendants of non-Western immigrants at the age of 20-29 years old got a conviction. I will emphasize that this is in that year alone; this is not an estimate of how many of the 30 year-olds got convicted while they were at the age of 20-29 – this is a snapshot, and during one year more than a fourth of these people got convicted of a crime.
You’d be tempted to say that the fraction of non-Western descendants in Denmark that commit crime while at the age of 20-29 corresponds to the fraction of Danes at the age of 35 who’ve ever been convicted. It’s not quite that bad, because the descendant numbers include traffic violations which are excluded in the other measure and traffic crimes make up a large chunk of the total – 58% of convictions of all descendants (Statistics Denmark doesn’t make it easy to separate non-Westerners from the rest) were traffic-related in 2011 (STRAFNA1). It’s noteworthy that the proportion of all crimes which are traffic-related when using this data at least seems to be significantly higher for ethnic Danes than it is for descendants; for persons of Danish ethnic origin 67% of all convictions were traffic-related (STRAFNA1). If we trust the 58% estimate above, roughly 16% of non-Westerners got a non-traffic conviction in 2008. Note that numbers vary across sources; this measure gives 117.517 traffic law convictions out of 200.091 total convictions, which corresponds to ~59% – I don’t have a good explanation for why the sources differ here. Using the numbers from StrafNA1 only gives you 102.265 traffic law convictions in total, 14575 (7%) of which were committed by immigrants or descendants (who make up 10,1% of the population).
Of course one might argue that the ‘key figures’ above include descendants and immigrants at the age of 35 as well – but I don’t think using it as an ‘ethnic Danes’ ballpark estimate is too problematic, it’s the best I’ve got anyway. So while the fraction of non-Western descendants in Denmark at the age of 20-29 who get convicted of a crime during any given year doesn’t exactly correspond to the fraction of Danes at the age of 35 who’ve ever been convicted, it probably does correspond to more than half (~57% – ~16/28).
The ‘key figures’ for 35 year olds also included a recidivism measure; half of those convicted during their first 35 years of life got at least one more conviction. Note that if you want the hypothetical proportion of repeat offenders in the descendants group at the age of 35 to be similar to the Danish total, the number of repeat offenders in the 27,2%/~16% (year by year) group would have to be very low and the number of total convicts would have to be very high. According to this article (Danish), ‘for ordinary criminals the recidivism rate is 30 % within 2 years of release’ (“For almindelige kriminelle er tilbagefaldsprocenten på 30 procent inden for to år efter løsladelsen.”). My brief look at Statistikbanken didn’t give me any numbers on recidivism rates (the menu here is blank), and I’m not sure it’s a good idea to use this estimate in calculations here because the use of the word ‘release’ likely means that the people included in this measure served time – and most convictions do not lead to jail time (..and the recidivism rate for a previous jail convict is likely different from the recidivism rate of a person who has not served jail-time). I’m lazy and it’s probably not a good estimate to use so I won’t model or do a lot of number crunching on this stuff. However it’s safe to say from the data that either a huge number of non-Western descendants will end up having been convicted of a crime, or a quite big number of them commit a huge amount of crime each. Unless you assume a high recidivism rate it’s also safe to say that the proportion of criminals grows pretty damn fast with crime rates like that (even though the growth rate falls ‘over time’). There certainly isn’t far from 16% to 28% when you add a significant amount to the first number each period and you have a lot of periods in which to add more stuff.
Update: The numbers in this recent (Danish) publication on recidivism rates seem relevant. It confirms my suspicion that the group of people who’ve been released from jail after having served their time have quite high recidivism rates (60%) compared to other groups. On average offenders with only ‘grundskole’ (1st-9th grade), the educational grouping with the by far highest average recidivism rate, had a recidivism rate of 44%. Via that link I also came across this publication from Statistics Denmark which may be of interest – there’s a lot of data here. They haven’t written the stuff in English, but they have added English translations of key concepts at the end of the publication so that it should theoretically be possible to read the tables if you’re patient.
As to the original remark that: ‘There certainly isn’t far from 16% to 28% when you add a significant amount to the first number each period and you have a lot of periods in which to add more stuff,’ note that if we assume that the two-year descendant recidivism rate is 50% and that the traffic crime proportion estimate is correct so that ~16% of the male descendants at the age of 20-29 got a non-traffic conviction during 2008, then the proportion of descendants with a conviction after two years is 0.16 +(1-0,5)*0.16 = 24%. A 50% recidivism rate is higher than the average recidivism rate of the lowest educated group in the publication linked to above. As I said, there isn’t far from 16% to 28%.
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