Econstudentlog

Some data on life expectancy variation

From this WHO paper. It has 254 pages and I haven’t read them all – neither should you, a lot of them are just pages of data. Anyway, some more stuff from the paper (click to view graphs and tables in full size):

“37 of the 40 countries with the lowest life expectancy are in Sub-Saharan Africa. HIV/AIDS is a major cause of the poor performance of many Africa countries in terms of health gains over the last decade or so. Overall, life expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa has declined by 3-5 years in the 1990s due to increasing mortality from HIV/AIDS, with the estimated loss reaching 15-20 years in countries such as Botswana, Zimbabwe and Zambia.” [my emphasis] […]

“Of the 10.5 million deaths below age 5 estimated to have occurred in 1999, 99% of them were in developing regions (3). The probability of child death (5qo) is typically less than 1% in industrialized countries classified into the A Regional Strata (and 0.5% in Japan), but rises to 300-350 per 1000 in Niger and Sierra Leone. Levels of child mortality well in excess of 10% (100 per 1000) are still common throughout Africa and in parts of Asia (Mongolia, Cambodia, Laos, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal).

However, perhaps the widest disparities in mortality occur at the adult ages 15-59 years. In some Southern African countries such as Zimbabwe, Zambia and Botswana, where HIV/AIDS is now a major public health problem, 70% or more of adults who survive to age 15 can be expected to die before age 60 on current mortality rates [in the late 80es, the number for Zimbabwe was 15-20%, see p.25 – US]. In several others (e.g. Malawi, Namibia and Uganda) the risk exceeds 60%. The dramatic increase in 45q15 in South Africa is also noteworthy, with estimated levels of 601 per 1000 and 533 per 1000 for males and females respectively in 1999. At the other extreme, 45q15 levels of 90-100 per 1000 are common in most developed countries for men, with risks as low as half this again for women. […] HIV/AIDS was the cause of about 2.2 million deaths in Africa in 1999, making it by far the leading cause of death on the continent.”

There’s a lot of variation in mortality rates:

…and Africa is not the only region that’s doing badly: “The extraordinary risks of premature adult death among men in Eastern Europe is also clear from the Figure, (EUR C Region) with more than 1 in 3 who survive to age 15 in this Region likely to die before reaching age 60, at current risks compared with 10-12% in Western Europe, Japan and Australia.”

“Globally, some 56 million people are estimated to have died in 1999, 10.5 million below age five years. More males (29million) then females (27million) died, reflecting the systematically higher death rates for males at all ages in almost all countries. […] Worldwide, deaths at ages 15-59 in 1999 amounted to an estimated 15.5 million, (9 million males, 6.5 million females), but with wide uncertainty. By any definition, these deaths (28% of the total over all ages) must be considered premature.”

The Danish life tables are at page 112 and I decided to post them below. The US life tables are at page 245. More fine-grained and newer US data are also available here.

Which variables are reported above? Well: “For each age, estimates of central death rates (nMx), the probability of dying (nqx), number of survivors (lx), and expectation of life (ex) are shown.” (p. 19) I didn’t have a clue what the ‘central death rate’ is but luckily one can look that kind of stuff up:

“For a given population or cohort, the central death rate at age x during a given period of 12 months is found by dividing the number of people who died during this period while aged x (that is, after they had reached the exact age x but before reached the exact age x+1) by the average number who were living in that age group during the period.”

Do remember when looking at numbers such as these that it’s not just about how long you live – how you die matters a great deal.

November 14, 2012 - Posted by | data, demographics, health

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