Hvis det stod til indvandrere og flygtninge her i landet ville 169 mandater gå til oppositionen; 6 til Venstre; K og O ville begge være ude af Folketinget. Jeg kopierer en stor del af artiklen, fordi nyhedsmedierne har en grim vane med at slette artikler efter noget tid, og den her vil jeg med stor sandsynlighed tage frem igen:
Massivt rødt flertal blandt indvandrere
Offentliggjort 27.01.10 kl. 15:02
Venstre ville med seks mandater være Folketingets mindste parti. Både De Konservative og Dansk Folkeparti ville ryge under spærregrænsen og dermed ud af Folketinget.
Det viser en meningsmåling blandt 1.055 repræsentativt udvalgte indvandrere og flygtninge, som Catinét har gennemført for Ritzau.
Til gengæld ville Socialdemokraterne, SF, De Radikale og Enhedslisten sidde tungt på magten med samlet 169 mandater.
Socialdemokraterne ville med 94 mandater være tingets største parti og alene have absolut flertal. […]
De Radikale ville få 11 mandater, mens SF står til hele 56 mandater i målingen. Enhedslisten ville få otte mandater.
Målingen er gennemført fra den 17. december til den 7. januar som en del af Catinéts tilbagevendende interviewundersøgelse Integrationsstatus.
Deltagerne er flygtninge, indvandrere og deres efterkommere fra Pakistan, Tyrkiet, Somalia, Eksjugoslavien, Iran, Irak, Libanon, Palæstina samt statsløse.
Cirka 80 procent er muslimer.
(Selvfølgelig) via Kim Møller. Jeg betragter ovenstående som nogle fakta, der leverer et stærkt argument imod levedygtigheden af en model med åbne grænser og lukkede kasser.
Update: I see that youtube has disabled the embedding feature when it comes to Gilels’ recording (the last of the vids). I didn’t know that when I posted it, otherwise I’d have chosen another interpretation of that piece/another piece. Anyway, now it’s posted, and it’s well worth it to click the link to the video.
I was robbed of a few days of reading due to unforeseen family matters I had to attend to, so I haven’t had as much time to read as I’d hoped during the last days. However, I have completed Twain and started Shakespeare. I am still undecided as to whether I shall post a fourth post on the book after this one or not, there’s so much good stuff in there I really have a hard time not sharing some of those wonderful quotes. Ok, here goes:
“We wish to learn all the curious, outlandish ways of all the different countries, so that we can “show off” and astonish people when we get home. We wish to excite the envy of our untraveled friends with our strange foreign fashions which we can’t shake off. All our passengers are paying strict attention to this thing, with the end in view which I have mentioned. The gentle reader will never, never know what a consummate ass he can become, until he goes abroad. I speak now, of course, in the supposition that the gentle reader has not been abroad, and therefore is not already a consummate ass. If the case be otherwise, I beg his pardon and call him my brother. I shall always delight to meet an ass after my own heart when I shall have finished my travels.”
(this is how that specific page in my book looks now:
I (almost) always destroy my books like this. If I quote something from a book on this blog, you can be pretty sure I’ve outlined the passage in the book too. You can also be sure that there are a lot of passages that I didn’t quote in the blog post which I outlined when reading the book.)
“In Venice, to-day, a city of a hundred thousand inhabitants, there are twelve hundred priests. Heaven only knows how many there were before the Parliament reduced their numbers.” […] “As far as I can see, Italy, for fifteen hundred years, has turned all her energies, all her finances, and all her industry to the building up of a vast array of wonderful church edifices, and starving half her citizens to accomplish it. She is to-day one vast museum of magnificence and misery. All the churches in an ordinary American city put together could hardly buy the jeweled frippery in one of her hundred cathedrals.”
“There are more Princes than policemen in Naples – the city is infested with them.”
“After browsing among the stately ruins of Rome, of Baiæ, of Pompeii, and after glancing down the long marble ranks of battered and nameless imperial heads that stretch down the corridors of the Vatican, one thing strikes me with a force it never had before: the unsubstantial, unlasting character of fame. Men lived long lives, in the olden time, and struggled feverishly through them, toiling like slaves, in oratory, in generalship, or in literature, and then laid them down and died, happy in the possession of an enduring history and a deathless name. Well, twenty little centuries flutter away, and what is left of these things? A crazy inscription on a block of stone, which snuffy antiquaries bother over and tangle up and make nothing out of but a bare name (which they spell wrong) – no history, no tradition, no poetry – nothing that can give it even a passing interest. What may be left of General Grant’s great name forty centuries hence? This – in the Encyclopedia for A.D. 5868, possibly:
‘Uriah S. (or Z.) Graunt – popular poet of ancient times in the Aztec provinces of the United States of British America. Some authors say flourished about A.D. 742; but the learned Ah-ah Foo-foo states that he was a cotemporary of Scharkspyre, the English poet, and flourished about A.D. 1328, some three centuries after the Trojan war instead of before it. He wrote ‘Rock me to Sleep, Mother.’
These thoughts sadden me. I will to bed.”
“Circassian and Georgian girls are still sold in Constantinople by their parents, but not publicly. The great slave marts we have all read so much about – where tender young girls were stripped for inspection, and criticised and discussed just as if they were horses at an agricultural fair – no longer exist. The exhibition and the sales are private now. Stocks are up, just at present, partly because of a brisk demand created by the recent return of the Sultan’s suite from the courts of Europe; partly on account of an unusual abundance of breadstuffs, which leaves holders untortured by hunger and enables them to hold back for high prices; and partly because buyers are too weak to bear the market, while sellers are amply prepared to bull it. […] Prices are pretty high now, and holders firm; but, two or three years ago, parents in a starving condition brought their young daughters down here and sold them for even twenty or thirty dollars*, when they could do no better, simply to save themselves and the girls from dying of want. It is sad to think of so distressing a thing as this, and I for one am sincerely glad the prices are up again.”
*This is, according to info provided in a section I left out of the quote, appr. equal to a tenth of the current rate, which is around 200-300 dollars/girl.
“In the morning we sent for donkeys. It is worthy of note that we had to send for these things. I said Damascus was an old fossil, and she is. Any where else we would have been assailed by a clamorous army of donkey-drivers, guides, peddlers and beggars – but in Damascus they so hate the very sight of a foreign Christian that they want no intercourse whatever with him; only a year or two ago, his person was not always safe in Damascus streets. It is the most fanatical Mohammedan purgatory out of Arabia.”
Later on Twain mentions in passing a “mausoleum of the five thousand Christians who were massacred in Damascus in 1861 by the Turks” – that was 6 years earlier. Not exactly hospitable territory, it would probably be safe to say.
“Magdala is not a beautiful place. It is thoroughly Syrian, and that is to say that it is thoroughly ugly, and cramped, squalid, uncomfortable, and filthy…”
I have had my last exam for this semester by now, but I haven’t spent much time (book-)reading since then. I expect to spend the next couple of days reading, however for now a few quotes from Mark Twain will have to do (I still love it! – and if you like the quotes, you will too):
“They say that a pagan temple stood where Notre Dame now stands, in the old Roman days, eighteen or twenty centuries ago – remains of it are still preserved in Paris; and that a Christian church took its place about A.D. 300; another took the place of that in A.D. 500; and that the foundations of the present Cathedral were laid about A.D. 1100. The ground ought to be measurably sacred by this time, one would think.”
“Crowds, composed of both sexes and nearly all ages, were frisking about the garden or sitting in the open air in front of the flag-staff and the temple, drinking wine and coffee, or smoking. The dancing had not begun, yet. Ferguson said there was to be an exhibition. The famous Blondin was going to perform on a tight-rope in another part of the garden. We went thither. […] Blondin came out shortly. He appeared on a stretched cable, far away above the sea of tossing hats and handkerchiefs, and in the glare of the hundreds of rockets that whizzed heavenward by him he looked like a wee insect. He balanced his pole and walked the lenght of his rope – two or three hundred feet; he came back and got a man and carried him across; he returned to the centre and danced a jig; next he performed some gymnastic and balancing feats too perilous to afford a pleasant spectacle; and he finished by fastening to his person a thousand Roman candles, Catherine wheels, serpents and rockets of all manner of brilliant colors, setting them on fire all at once and walking and waltzing across his rope again in a blinding blaze of glory that lit up the garden and people’s faces like a great conflagration at midnight.”
The entertainment industry has changed somewhat in the time that has passed. It seems this was the kind of thing you’d go out and do in the evening if you were rich and had a lot of spare time 150 years ago. Point also being you had to go out not to get bored to death; no tv, no radio, no internet, no nothing (besides books). In terms of standards today, I’d probably rather break my arm than to spend an hour or more looking at some guy doing line-dancing tricks (also, a famous line-danser? Seriously?). Pretty sure I’m not alone.
“In Paris we often saw in shop windows the sign, “English Spoken Here,” just as one sees in the windows at home the sign, “Ici on parle francaise.”* We always invaded these places at once – and invariably received the information, framed in faultless french, that the clerk who did the English for the establishment had just gone to dinner and would be back in an hour – would Monsieur buy something? We wondered why those parties happened to take their dinners at such erratic and extraordinary hours, for we never called at a time when an exemplary Christian would be in the least likely to be abroad on such an errand.”
*the 2. comma in the first sentense was placed inside the quotation marks in the original and there was no cédille in the original under the c in française, for one reason or another.
(…) “Genoa. I think there is a church every three or four hundred yards all over town. The streets are sprinkled from end to end with shovel-hatted, long-robed, well-fed priests, and the church bells by dozens are pealing all the day long, nearly. Every now and then one comes across a friar of orders gray, with shaven head, long, coarse robe, rope girdle and beads, and with feet cased in sandals or entirely bare. These worthies suffer in the flesh, and do penance all their lives, I suppose, but they look like consummate famine-breeders. They are all fat and serene.”
“It is hard to forget repulsive things. I remember yet how I ran off from school once, when I was a boy, and then, pretty late at night, concluded to climb into the window of my father’s office and sleep on a lounge, because I had a delicacy about going home and getting thrashed. […] When I reached home, they whipped me, but I enjoyed it. It seemed perfectly delightful.”
There’s also a long passage describing some fist-fights the sailors had with the locals over a period of three days, but I decided not to quote that. It’s obvious that the general attitude towards the use of violence was very different back then.
“The priests [in the Cathedral of Milan] showed us two of St. Paul’s fingers, and one of St. Peter’s; a bone of Judas Iscariot, (it was black) and also bones of all the other disciples; a handkerchief in which the Saviour had left the impression of his face. Among the most precious of the relics were a stone from the Holy Sepulchre, part of the crown of thorns, (they have a whole one at Notre Dame,) a fragment of the purple robe worn by the Saviour, a nail from the Cross, and a picture of the Virgin and Child painted by the veritable hand of St. Luke. This is the second of St. Luke’s Virgins we have seen. Once a year all these holy relics are carried in procession through the streets of Milan.”
Here you can read my first post about the book in case you missed it.
1. Most people will hurt you if you give them the chance to do so.
2. We’re all basically still just monkeys walking around in fancy clothes.
3. To be self-destructive can be ‘a way of life’.
4. People talk way too much in general.
5. Politeness is underrated.
6. Established habits make most people greatly underestimate just how complicated their lives really are.
I played this piece some years ago, but I never got very far. My fingers weren’t strong enough and I didn’t have the agility necessary to get the Poco piú lento, not to talk of the Doppio movimento, right, so I basically just perfected the first 2.45 or so in the video and just let it go eventually without completing it. I’ll try to get through it this time, it’s a wonderful piece I’d really love to be able to play. Incidentally, I know it’s supposed to be ‘twice the speed’ but I still think Lugansky’s playing the doppio movimento sequence too fast, it’d been a lot more expressive if he’d slowed down just a little.
I should of course have added the fact that even if this is the latest project, it’s not the only piece I’m working on at the moment. Ever since I heard this recording by Annie Fischer, I’ve wanted to play the andante molto and adagio part of the 3rd movement of Brahms’ 3rd piano sonata, ie. the first ~3.30 or so of the video below, very badly, and I recently managed to procure the sheet, so, yeah…
(/Well, I found them interesting…)
If marriage was a manufactured product it would be promptly banned in many countries due to its outrageous failure rate and the damage caused by the failures.
A very good lecture:
1…e6 and 6…h6 were not recommended by Fritz (a computer chess program), however besides from those two moves, every single one of my moves (I was black) were recommended by the program. This despite the fact that I almost never play the Queens gambit with black (which I ended up doing despite my first move), and thus do not know this type of position as well as I probably should. Fritz’ default setting lets it recommend two different moves at each juncture, so this close correspondence between the computer’s moves and mine isn’t that big a deal; however I still do believe that the close match between my moves and the program’s moves is related to the fact that I understand the game a lot better than I used to. I didn’t play (m?)any of these kinds of games a few years ago. Before, I tended to win my games by making fewer/smaller mistakes than my opponents, whereas on the other hand now it happens fairly regularly that I play a game without making any mistakes worth mentioning if my opponent is significantly weaker than I am.
I’m a much better player than I was two-three years ago, and I’m right now actually considering going back to some form of tournament chess. At the moment only considering it though; it would be a very big step for me to take.
From the comment section of this post published on Pharyngula, a new blog William Jansen introduced me to recently (thanks for that!). It’s a comment responding to another comment mentioning the meme that if you can’t do anything about it, pretend it’s a good thing :
“People do this with all kinds of diseases and disabilities — look at the number of people who think that being blind must automagically make you able to hear like a dog, or the sheerly annoying (as a person with a disability) number of people who seem to think that disabled (and sick) people exist to be moral exemplars to them.
I blame the ancient Greeks, personally; there’s no character in a ancient Greek work of literature who has what we’d now call a disease or disability who isn’t “gifted” or otherwise special in some way (the blind or lame prophet, for example), and the trope has persisted through western literature so universally and for so long now, people have basically been subconsciously conditioned from birth to believe that disease, disability, and infirmity must always come with some kind of (hidden) upside. Add that to the human tendency to construct narrative out of temporally-connected series of events, and everyone is looking for a good story in adversity.
The reality is, disease and disability aren’t morally uplifting and don’t exist to teach other people how to be patient, tolerant, or any of that other BS. They’re ugly, usually painful, inconvenient, and undignified, and, above all, not about anyone but the person who has them (and maybe their immediate circle).”
It’s a small minority that do not think of aging this way too; as something that has its costs and its benefits. I, on the other hand, like to think of aging as just another incurable, complex disease (or …set of diseases…) that’s slowly killing all of us.
This article is way too good not to quote in some detail:
“Never have a picture of a well-adjusted African on the cover of your book, or in it, unless that African has won the Nobel Prize. An AK-47, prominent ribs, naked breasts: use these. If you must include an African, make sure you get one in Masai or Zulu or Dogon dress.
In your text, treat Africa as if it were one country. It is hot and dusty with rolling grasslands and huge herds of animals and tall, thin people who are starving. Or it is hot and steamy with very short people who eat primates. Don’t get bogged down with precise descriptions. Africa is big: fifty-four countries, 900 million people who are too busy starving and dying and warring and emigrating to read your book. The continent is full of deserts, jungles, highlands, savannahs and many other things, but your reader doesn’t care about all that, so keep your descriptions romantic and evocative and unparticular.”
“Among your characters you must always include The Starving African, who wanders the refugee camp nearly naked, and waits for the benevolence of the West. Her children have flies on their eyelids and pot bellies, and her breasts are flat and empty. She must look utterly helpless. She can have no past, no history; such diversions ruin the dramatic moment. Moans are good. She must never say anything about herself in the dialogue except to speak of her (unspeakable) suffering. Also be sure to include a warm and motherly woman who has a rolling laugh and who is concerned for your well-being. Just call her Mama.”
“Broad brushstrokes throughout are good. Avoid having the African characters laugh, or struggle to educate their kids, or just make do in mundane circumstances. Have them illuminate something about Europe or America in Africa. African characters should be colourful, exotic, larger than life—but empty inside, with no dialogue, no conflicts or resolutions in their stories, no depth or quirks to confuse the cause.
Describe, in detail, naked breasts (young, old, conservative, recently raped, big, small) or mutilated genitals, or enhanced genitals. Or any kind of genitals. And dead bodies. Or, better, naked dead bodies. And especially rotting naked dead bodies. Remember, any work you submit in which people look filthy and miserable will be referred to as the ‘real Africa’, and you want that on your dust jacket. Do not feel queasy about this: you are trying to help them to get aid from the West. The biggest taboo in writing about Africa is to describe or show dead or suffering white people.”
The link has more. Via Kids Prefer Cheese.
Du kan se nærmere på tallene her. Jeg er ikke sikker på, at disse tal vil være nye for bloggens læsere, men jeg er sikker på, at mange af de relevante udviklingstendenser er helt ukendte for folk, der ikke arbejder i sundhedssektoren og bestemt ikke er ‘almen viden’, hvordan man så end måtte definere dette tågede begreb.
Et par highlights:
Dødsfald samlet, aldersstandardiserede rater pr. 100.000 indbyggere:
Et par kommentarer fra rapporten:
Dødeligheden af iskæmiske hjertesygdomme, karsygdomme i hjernen (apopleksi) og andre kredsløbssygdomme falder fortsat. Dette fald er set over mange år, og gælder både de samlede tal og for begge køn. Det kan ses som udtryk både for ændringer i livsstil og for forbedret behandling.
Dødeligheden for kræft ligger på samme niveau som de foregående år. Det gælder både samlet og for begge køn. I lyset af den fortsat faldende dødelighed for hjertesygdomme er dette positivt. De aldersgrupper, som tidligere i højere grad døde af hjertesygdomme, kunne forventes at have stor risiko for i stedet at dø af kræft. Derfor ville et fald i dødeligheden af hjertesygdomme, hvis andre forhold ellers var uændrede, føre til en stigning i kræftdødsfald. Men vi ser ikke en sådan stigning. Derfor kan en stagnering af kræftdødeligheden betragtes som et positivt tegn.
Tidligere og bedre diagnosticering kan naturligvis tolkes i samme lys, hvad rapporten også er inde på.
Antallet af selvmord er faldet med næsten en tredjedel (32,25%) fra 1995 til 2008. Jeg forventer at tallet stiger i 2009 og 2010 – traditionelt har denne dødsårsag så vidt jeg ved en betydelig cyklisk komponent (eks. betinget af samvariation mellem antallet af tvangsauktioner og antallet af selvmord). Lidt flere detaljer:
Forgiftning samt kvælning, strangulation og hængning er de mest populære selvmordsmetoder, og har været det i hele perioden; i 1995 udgjorde de 68,3% af alle selvmord og selvmordsforsøg, i 2008 69,5%. Bemærk dog at forgiftning er blevet mindre attraktivt; fra at udgøre mere end en tredjedel af alle selvmord og selvmordsforsøg udgjorde de i 2008 ‘kun’ godt 28%, svarende omtrent til et fald på 30 selvmord/-sforsøg om året i forhold til en alternativ udvikling uden dette relative fald. Jeg er i øvrigt, hvis nogen skulle være i tvivl, relativt sikker på, at alle de selvmordsforsøg der omtales i dødsårsagsregistret, er selvmordsforsøg der lykkedes. Hvad forskellen er på selvmord og selvmordsforsøg i rapporten er uklart, og det er ikke nærmere specificeret i rapporten. Denne artikel i Sygeplejersken angiver et årligt tal på 730 dødsfald som følge af selvmord, sandsynligvis svarende meget godt til dødsårsagsregistertallene for de år, der lå forud for 2005 (tallet for 2000 var 728). Tallet i dag svarer groft sagt til lidt under to selvmord om dagen på landsplan.
Tallene gør klart, at det ikke kun er antallet af voldtægter, der er faldende herhjemme: Antallet af mord/drab er også faldende.
Der dør ca. en dansker om ugen pga. overfald eller mord. Også derfor er overfaldet på Kurt Westergaard bemærkelsesværdigt; hvis radikale muslimer begynder at føle sig nødt til at myrde islamkritikere, i stedet for at nøjes med at true dem, vil det tal med sikkerhed stige voldsomt fremover.
Antallet af AIDS-dødsfald var i 1995 255 og forrige år blot 22. Næsten 9 ud af 10 der døde af AIDS i 1995 var mænd, og de er stadig stærkt overrepræsenterede, eftersom de i 2008 udgjorde 18 ud af 22 dødsfald. Hvor mange af dem, der er homoseksuelle fremgår ikke af tallene. Der synes ikke at være nogen tvivl om, at den medicinske behandling i dag lader HIV-smittede leve meget længere end tidligere.
(click to view in a higher resolution)
During 2000–2030, the worldwide population aged >65 years is projected to increase by approximately 550 million to 973 million (3), increasing from 6.9% to 12.0% worldwide, from 15.5% to 24.3% in Europe, from 12.6% to 20.3% in North America, from 6.0% to 12.0% in Asia, and from 5.5% to 11.6% in Latin America and the Caribbean (2). […] During 2000–2030, the number of persons in developing countries aged >65 years is projected to almost triple, from approximately 249 million in 2000 to an estimated 690 million in 2030 (3), and the developing countries’ share of the world’s population aged >65 years is projected to increase from 59% to 71% (2). However, migration patterns could influence these projections.
The report isn’t new, so maybe the data look a little bit different now, but hardly all that different. A few years ago, this subject was discussed reasonably often here in DK, but now I can’t even remember the last time I’ve heard a politician talk about this particular ‘problem’.
In case you’re wondering, this is a problem that really isn’t going anywhere – in fact, with current policies continued, the problem (a stagnating labor force supporting an increasingly larger group of old people who can no longer support themselves and who have for most of their lives counted on the government to support them when they reached old age, meaning that a lot of them have saved far too little to support themselves in old age) will only grow over time, given that people can expect to live longer and longer (in Denmark, appr. 1 more year/decade) as time goes by.
If the retirement age were to be adjusted so that it would roughly match the increasing longevity of the population (1 month/year or so), this problem would be much easier to solve in the long run. The more time passes, the less likely the enactment of such an adjustment model will become.
I recently started reading the Aid Watch blog. If you’re interested in development economics and stuff about foreign aid you’ll find some good stuff there from time to time (but if you are, you probably already know about it).
The blog is primarily written by William Easterly, (among other things…) author of The elusive Quest for Growth… and The White Man’s Burden, neither of which I’ve read, both of which I intend at some point to read.
Descriptive results showed that the prevalence of urban overweight/obesity increased by nearly 35% during the period covered. The increase was higher among the poorest (+50%) than among the richest (+7%). Importantly, there was an increase of 45-50% among the non-educated and primary-educated women, compared to a drop of 10% among women with secondary education or higher.
The study covers results from the period 1992 to 2005, so it’s not a new development but something that has been going on for a while. These are results from the US, you say? In that case, you’d be wrong; they are from Kenya, Niger, Malawi ect. I was very surprised to learn this, but apparently the urban (poor) population of Africa is getting fatter too.
Of course the link is to Razib Khan’s great blog on scienceblogs.